If you’re going to handicap sports in order to beat the book on spread bets, your realistic long-term goal would be to pick 55% winners. If you could do that, you should retire from whatever else you might do, and focus on sports betting full time, because you would eventually become very wealthy. Picking 55% of winners is an elite skill. But even with 55% winners, you’re going to have some long losing streaks that will test your emotional control and discipline. As you go with agen bola terpercaya deposit 50rb, this actually becomes doubly difficult given that even if you’re picking 55% winners, on most nights you’re going to bed a net loser. If you don’t believe me, then just keep reading. Why is that so? Short answer – because of juice. Let’s look at the following table. It shows the long-term winning percentages of a handicapper who wins 55% when he bets his top 4 picks per day. Wins Losses Percentage 4 0 9.15% 3 1 29.95% 2 2 36.75% 1 3 20.05% 0 4 4.10% To read the table: 9.15% of the days he bets he wins all four bets. 20.05% of the days he bets he gets 1 win and 3 losses, etc. You, Will, Lose More Often Than You Win
What the table tells us is that 60.9% of the days that our 55% ‘capper bets, he loses money. Easy to see when he goes 0-4 (4.10%) and 1-3 (20.05%) but you also have to add the days he goes 2-2 (36.75%). This is because you do not stay ahead of the juice on those days, so you finish with less money than you started. This means that an excellent spread bettor, betting his top 4 picks per day, goes to bed a net loser over 60% of the time. Your psyche needs to be prepared for this. If it’s not then a losing streak could put you on a serious tilt and cause you to start chasing your losses. The ripple effect of that can be disastrous. Chasing is NOT the Answer.
Even minor chasing can be very damaging. In the case of our 55% capper, let’s assume he starts to get a little tilted over a couple of days of going 0-4 and 1-3. He decides to start betting his top 5 plays per day instead of his top 4. Doesn’t seem terribly dangerous at first – but remember, he is a 55% ‘capper when he plays his top 4 picks. His picking percentage for his top 5 picks will be lower than 55%. By playing 5 picks instead of 4 he has set himself up to go to bed a net loser even more often than he does with 4 picks. Being a handicapper requires great skill. But just as important is emotional control and betting discipline. Without it, you can not succeed in the long term.
